Is there an $82 billion capital hole in the property-casualty insurance market? If so, who will fill it? Those were some of the troubling questions raised by catastrophe modeler Peter Nakada, managing director of RMS Consulting.

Venturing a bit outside his area of expertise to pull together an estimate that might normally come from a rating agency analyst, and which he admitted was a "back of the envelope" calculation, Mr. Nakada said his conclusion was based on output from the newest catastrophe model used by the Newark, Calif.-based RMS.

"The big elephant in the room is [the question], where is this capital going to come from?" Mr. Nakada said here at a session of the Casualty Actuarial Society Seminar on Reinsurance, a point he repeated last week at the annual Standard & Poor's Insurance Conference.

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