Catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS) has announced the launch of a major update of its U.S. and Canada earthquake models.
According to Newark, Calif.-based RMS, the latest versions represent a significant advancement in the quantification of seismic risk for the eastern U.S. and Canada, implementing third-generation modeling capabilities throughout the region and incorporating perspectives on loss amplification gained from the hurricanes of 2004-2005.
“Earthquakes east of the Rockies are less common than in the tectonically active West but can be more severe due to the slower attenuation of ground motion and less seismically resistant building stock,” said Don Windeler, earthquake practice lead at RMS.
Mr. Windeler said RMS' revised U.S. and Canada Earthquake models provide users with “powerful tools for both underwriting and portfolio management in these regions.”
RMS said it updated the source modeling for these rare events by utilizing the current national seismic hazard maps from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Geological Survey of Canada, as well as new research into the behavior of key areas driving the risk to insured portfolios.
Another key advancement involves the extension of RMS' spectral response-based vulnerability modeling from the western earthquake regions to the eastern regions, the company said.
This approach captures the variations in vibration patterns and analyzes the ways that they interact with buildings of different heights and materials.
Using the new RMS U.S. Earthquake Model and insured exposure as of 2006, RMS estimated that the states east of the Rockies comprise 20 percent of the average annual loss from earthquakes in the United States.
A majority of this loss comes from the five states surrounding the New Madrid seismic zone (Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas). RMS said that a magnitude 7.7 New Madrid earthquake, similar to the one that occurred in December of 1811, would result in over $60 billion in insured losses today.
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