A debate over whether rating agencies and modeling firms are overreacting to recent catastrophe events took an odd turn recently when experts warned that companies will play games with catastrophe models to maintain current ratings.
During the World Insurance Forum here late last month, the “overreaction” question resurfaced frequently, as executives discussed the lingering impact of Hurricane Katrina and other windstorms.
On the one hand, insurer and reinsurer executives are anticipating increased prices and higher demand for catastrophe reinsurance protection that new versions of cat models will drive later this year. On the other hand, even modeling firm executives are worried about increasing rating agency requirements that hinge on loss estimates generated by updated cat models.
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