A warm climate phase underway now in the North Atlantic could last for decades and stir more huge hurricanes, according to a reinsurance firm.
Zurich-based Swiss Re in its catastrophe report for 2005, released today, said the recent increase in hurricane losses is linked to a warm phase of “Atlantic multidecadal oscillation” in the North Atlantic.
The company said that this warm phase began in 1995 and “is expected to last for another 10 to 30 years.” Given such conditions, above average hurricane activity with more intense storms can be expected.
Similar conclusions were reached by another reinsurer, Munich Re, which released a report yesterday that said hurricane intensity and frequency is increasing. According to the report, the record number of cyclones in 2005 coincides with the highest mean annual temperature measured in the North Atlantic since recording began in 1880.
Munich Re said the current warm phase will continue for years, “if not decades,” and has seen 4.1 major hurricanes a year, compared with 1.5 in the last cold phase.
The Munich-based reinsurer said its analysis suggests the natural climate oscillation is responsible for about two-thirds of the overall effect and global warming about one third.
The effect of the natural climate oscillation will weaken in a few years or decades and then go into reverse, Munich Re said, while “global warming must be expected to accelerate.”
Swiss Re said that during 2005 it counted almost 400 catastrophes, which caused damage totaling more than $230 billion–accounting for about $83 billion in insured losses, with $78 billion from natural catastrophes and $5 billion from manmade disasters.
Munich Re's figures for overall losses were slightly lower; it put the amount at $210 billion. Munich Re said hurricanes in the United States, Caribbean and Mexico caused insured losses exceeding $83 billion.
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