Experts from both sides of the Atlantic are predicting an above-average hurricane season for this year. Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based forecasting consortium, is expecting Atlantic basin hurricane activity to be 60 percent above the 1950-2005 norm. The two main climate factors influencing TSR's forecast are the speed of trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes develop.
“We are witnessing record levels of Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity,” said Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of seasonal forecasting and meteorological hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London. “The years 2003 to 2005 have seen the highest three-year total number of U.S. hurricane landfalls (11) since 1900 and the highest three-year total number of North Atlantic hurricanes (30) since reliable records began in 1950. Based on current and projected climate signals, this high activity looks set to continue through 2006.”
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