The ISO results published on Dec. 27 indicated a nine-month 2005 combined ratio of 100--an actual result that suggests to Mr. Hartwig that the analysts' combined ratio prediction for full-year 2005--at 105.3, on average--is well off the mark.

"I think what every analyst underestimated is the resiliency of the industry in the face of large-scale disaster." In particular, he said, "there may be more reinsurance out there than they [the analysts] realize."

For 2006, while the analysts are likely expecting a lower level of catastrophe losses with their overall combined ratio predictions of 98, they may still have overestimated the impact of even moderate-scale disasters, Mr. Hartwig said.

"Very substantial amounts of the losses" are reinsured by firms in London, Switzerland and Germany, taking them off the bottom lines of U.S. companies, he said.

Mr. Hartwig said he thought the latest analysts' predictions regarding average premium growth will prove to be "overblown." He based this on the fact that the latest data brings into question their forecasts indicating average growth of 2.5 percent for 2005.

Noting that actual results published by ISO through nine months showed net premiums fell 0.5 percent (or rose only 1.3 percent if a single distorting transaction between American Re and parent Munich is excluded), he said the analysts' premium expectations for 2006--averaging 4.7 percent--will likely "be ratcheted down."

The early views that the impact of Katrina and other storms would be "to prop up casualty market pricing, I think have been wrong from day one. And I think I'm being proved right on that."

"My view is that the increases in price will be very limited in scale [and] scope," with the exception of commercial and residential property risks in the Southeastern Gulf and corresponding reinsurance.

Mr. Hartwig noted I.I.I. is now in the process of resurveying analysts, as it does every year, for a "Groundhog Forecast" due out in early February. While there historically has been little difference between the Groundhog and Early Bird survey results, this time Mr. Hartwig expects nearly all of the analysts to change all of their forecasts.

But a few analysts already did "pick up on the resiliency issue" with lower combined ratio forecasts for 2006, he said.

In fact, the range of combined ratio predictions for 2006 extends from a 94 from Raymond James to 100.3 by Conning & Company. A wider range of predictions for 2005 has both these firms closer to the 105.3 average (Raymond James at 104.1 and Conning at 103.3), while Firemark Investments came in with the lowest 2005 prediction of 100.2 (and 97.3 for 2006).