Claims News Service, Dec. 7, 11:26 a.m. EST — Just a week after 2005's official hurricane season came to a close, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University has released a report on what to expect for the 2006.
Authors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray state that although an active season is believed to be in store next year, they expect fewer major hurricanes to make landfall in comparison to 2004 and 2005. Seventeen storms are predicted to be named, with nine developing into hurricanes. Five of those are expected to become intense hurricanes. In comparison, 2005 featured 26 named storms, with 14 storms being named and seven becoming intense hurricanes. A hurricane is classified as being intense when it reaches Category 3 status or higher.
The probability of a major catastrophe still is sizeable for 2006. The report states that there is an 81 percent chance an intense hurricane would strike the U.S. coastal areas. Gray and Klotzbach predict that the East Coast has a 64 percent chance of being hit and the Gulf Coast (from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas) a 47 percent chance.
In addition to making predictions on 2006's hurricane season, the report disputes that global warming is affecting the number and intensity of hurricanes. “No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will be able to directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global hurricane frequency and intensity.”
This is the 23rd year the group has made a forecast on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Analyses are based on oceanic and atmospheric trends over the last 52 years. The complete report is available at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/.
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