The heads-up came during the National Trends program run by National Underwriter in Orlando, Fla., during last month's Workers' Compensation Educational Conference, sponsored by the Florida Workers' Compensation Institute.

For one, the industry must be ready for the return of battle-scarred servicemen and women to the workplace, said Robert P. Hartwig, senior vice president and chief economist with the Insurance Information Institute in New York.

Speaking during a "State of the Market" panel, Mr. Hartwig noted that 40 percent of the military serving in Iraq and Afghanistan are National Guard and reservists, with most returning to jobs they left when called to war. He said that 30 percent of returning troops exhibit mental problems and 4.2 percent of those coming back from Iraq are physically injured.

"Can you provide accommodation for the possibility of re-injury and lack of mental health treatment?" he asked the audience.

Mr. Hartwig said businesses should be aware of mental health issues, noting that the Veterans Health Administration spent $4.3 billion last year to treat veterans for post traumatic stress disorder.

Another emerging issue he highlighted is the impact of obesity-related claims, which he calculated account for 4 percent of workers' comp expenditures. According to Mr. Hartwig, 31 percent of the U.S. population is obese and 30 percent is overweight. "Workers of the future will be obese in record proportions," he predicted.

Mr. Hartwig estimated the impact of obese workers on the workers' comp system will be $1.1 billion this year alone. That figure, he said, does not include claims related to workers who are overweight but not enough for the obese category.

Higher health costs related to obesity--including diabetes, high blood pressure and back injuries--can be alleviated with aggressive wellness programs, he suggested.

Jennifer Tomilin, senior vice president at Zurich North America, warned of the possible impact of manganese exposure on employees doing welding work. She said that although there is currently no conclusive link, some studies have shown a connection to Parkinson's disease.

Noting the vast number of welders in the work force over the years, Ms. Tomilin cautioned: "Think how many old claims could come through the door if a [Parkinson's] link is proven."

She also warned of potential claims from silica dust, noting that 51 types of businesses have such exposure, while also citing beryllium, used in dental laboratories.

Mr. Hartwig sounded an alarm about degenerative neurological disease, which appears to be concentrated in a variety of occupations. Trial lawyers, he said, are preparing to seize on such cases to bring workers' comp claims.

Quotebox, with Hartwig:

"Can you provide accommodation for the possibility of re-injury and lack of mental health treatment?"

Robert P. Hartwig, Chief Economist

Insurance Information Institute