RIMS noted that while commercial property lines saw their prices continue to slide, it was only at a rate of 3.5 percent during the first quarter. That's a big moderation in softening when compared with a nearly 10 percent price fall recorded in 2004 fourth-quarter.

The RIMS survey also discovered that general liability prices in the first quarter actually experienced a slight riseof 1.1 percent. The group said this may presage a return to rising premiums for the line.

Directors and officers liability prices also appeared to show a transition in pricing, the survey said. RIMS noted that while D&O prices fell 8.1 percent in the first quarter, there are “anecdotal indications” that larger programs, such as those for Fortune 500 companies, have seen their D&O rates either flatten or even rise.

Advisen's Editor-in-Chief David Bradford told National Underwriter that “what we are seeing is what appears to be a slowing down of the downward trend in prices in property and general liability in particular.” He explained that the reason for this finding's added significance is that “property and general liability have been the lines that typically lead other lines up and down in the marketplace” in pricing trends.

“So to the extent that we are seeing some moderations in those lines, we think that's a sign that the same moderation trend will spread throughout the rest of the commercial marketplace,” Mr. Bradford said.

However, one line that will likely continue to soften is workers' compensation, which didn't show any rate falls until late 2004. “Workers' comp is driven by benefit levels of individual states. It's a very politically driven line. Workers comp will now continue to show a softening trend for a few more quarters,” Mr. Bradford said.

Overall, the RIMS survey is seeing signs of the end of the soft market for commercial insurance, but another new survey, from The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers, shows that the marketplace is, at least at the moment, still dominated by falling prices.

According to the CIAB survey, also released last week, commercial p-c premiums continued to soften during the 2005 first quarter, with the average rates for “all sizes of accounts” reaching their lowest levels since the market peaked in late 2001. CIAB represents commercial insurance brokers who collectively write more than 80 percent of all commercial p-c premiums.

The CIAB said that for all sizes of accounts, premiums fell an average of 9.4 percent in the first quarter, and some 80 percent of large commercial accounts saw rates fall more than 10 percent. The survey showed that “virtually all lines of commercial p-c insurance” experienced a similar downtick.

Commenting on the CIAB findings, Advisen's Mr. Bradford said it's hard to draw a direct comparison because the two surveys have a different focus. “The RIMS survey is not looking at overall changes across all lines,” he said. And while CIAB appears to be showing somewhat larger rate falls in general than what RIMS found, “I think what we are talking here is a matter of degree in interpretation of numbers and trends rather than any material differences.”

In contrast to the RIMS survey findings showing a 3.5 percent decline in commercial property prices and a 1.1 percent price rise for general liability, an analysis of the CIAB survey data by Lehman Brothers Equity Research showed declines in both lines. For property, the drop was 13.1 percent, and for general liability, it was 9.2 percent in the first quarter.

Reproduced from National Underwriter Edition, April 15, 2005. Copyright 2005 by The National Underwriter Company in the serial publication. All rights reserved.Copyright in this article as an independent work may be held by the author.