If a Category 3 hurricane struck New York's Long Island coast it would create a $50 billion insured loss, a modeling firm executive said she has told regulators.

Karen Clark, AIR Worldwide president and chief executive officer, said she also advised them that approximately one-quarter of the $100 billion in total economic losses from such a scenario would be attributable to storm surge damage to property.

Ms. Clark said in a statement she had given the results of the AIR study that analyzed the potential impact of a major hurricane on the New York City metropolitan area to the four regulators who concluded a two-day National Catastrophe Insurance Program Summit meeting in Burlingame, Calif., yesterday.

The group said that one of their proposals is to eliminate federally subsidized flood insurance.

The conference included New York Insurance Superintendent Howard Mills, California Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty and Illinois Insurance Director Michael McRaith.

AIR said its Long Island loss scenario is based on a Category 3 storm, similar to the 1938 Great New England Hurricane, making landfall just to the east of New York City.

"The 1938 Great New England Hurricane was one of the most destructive storms ever to hit the Northeast. Thousands of buildings were destroyed and some coastal communities disappeared entirely," said Ms. Clark.

"A storm with similar characteristics would result in far more property damage today, since the total value of exposed properties in coastal areas of New York State alone has increased to over $1.9 trillion."

The contour of New York's coastline and relatively shallow depth of its coastal waters, AIR said, make it extremely vulnerable to storm surge.

The modeling firm found that the high risk of coastal flooding would require more than three million people to be evacuated from low-lying coastal areas. However, many hours before landfall, major bridges would experience hurricane force winds and ferry service across Long Island Sound would likely be stopped. Disaster planners have estimated that it could take up to 18 hours to evacuate the first million people from the area.

"Hurricane Katrina was the costliest catastrophe to impact the United States to date, but unfortunately we need to be prepared for much worse," continued Ms. Clark.

"AIR estimates that a loss equal to or greater than that of Hurricane Katrina has approximately a 5 percent annual probability for the United States. AIR's catastrophe models contain hundreds of potential scenarios with losses equal to or larger than that of Hurricane Katrina–some with insured losses in excess of $150 billion…"

AIR Worldwide Corp. is a member of the Jersey City, N.J.-based Insurance Services Office family of companies.

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