"Optimistic models" project that if the avian flu moves from birds to humans and causes a pandemic, it could cause $15 billion to $20 billion in U.S. insured losses, according to a Standard and Poor's analysis.
The New York rating services firm said that overall worldwide losses of $71.3 billion to $200 billion could result and that the heaviest impact could fall on big cities with large transit systems.
The $15 billion to $20 billion figure, based on U.S. Center for Disease Control data, reflects medical advances and containment efforts of the type that restricted Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, S&P said.
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