Although the overall risk of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil has decreased slightly, the risk of an extreme event occurring within the next five years has grown, according to a new report from Risk Management Solutions.
RMS on Thursday released its fourth annual U.S. Terrorism Risk Model. Although the analysis showed that anti-terrorism measures have reduced the risk of an attack on U.S. soil, the risk of terrorist activity continues to increase globally and the risk of extreme events over the next five years, including terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons, has increased.
"The improvements in U.S. security are making it harder to carry out big attacks, but as we've seen in the attacks in London and Madrid, the terrorists are now using smaller-scale attacks on soft targets to cause civilian casualties," said Dr. Andrew Coburn, director of terrorism research at RMS. "The threat of a mass-casualty attack by a determined group remains a real possibility."
RMS developed its analysis through a study of recent and historical events and with input from specialists in counter-terrorism intelligence and defense such as Jane's Information Group, the RAND Corporation, the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrew's University in Scotland, and the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore.
With attacks involving CBRN weapons becoming an increasing fear, RMS analyzed the risk of such attacks and found that while the overall likelihood of an occurrence remains low, biological attacks are becoming an increasing part of CBRN risk.
The analysis was presented at an RMS seminar on terrorism Risk in New York City, where speakers called upon Congress to extend the federal Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) beyond its current scheduled expiration date of Jan. 31, 2005.
Members of Congress, as well as the Bush Administration, are currently debating whether the TRIA program, which provides a reinsurance backstop against terrorist attacks by foreign organizations, should be extended, and what possible changes could be made to it.
The White House has proposed extending the program for two years, while increasing the deductible that would have to be paid and drastically increasing the loss threshold the industry would have to meet before any federal intervention took place. Others have suggested a simple two year extension of the current program. They also suggest allowing TRIA to expire and craft a new, long-term solution similar to the Pool Re system in Great Britain.
These pool proposals were also a part of the original TRIA debate after the Attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, but were rejected then.
Currently, progress on TRIA has stalled as lawmakers contend with issues arising from the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and expected issues from Hurricane Rita, as well as the filling of two Supreme Court vacancies.
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