Hurricane Rita should not lead to insurer insolvencies or raise prices except on a regional basis, insurance experts said today.
While the storm may not have done the damage of a Hurricane Katrina, estimated insurance losses from Rita still put her on the top 10 list, analysts noted.
Jay Gelb, an analyst for Lehman Brothers in New York, pointed out that loss estimates, which range from $2.5 billion to $7 billion from three modeling firms, give Rita a place as one of the most expensive hurricane insurance losses in history,
Fitch Ratings also pointed out that Rita was similar in magnitude to last year's Ivan and Frances, which are number three and five on the Insurance Information Institute's top 10 list of ten most costly hurricanes.
If Rita comes in on the high end, at $7 billion, it could make it the fourth most expensive hurricane in U.S. history behind Ivan, but ahead of Hugo, in 1989, which cost the industry less than $6.4 billion in 2004 dollars.
Despite Rita, Fitch said it does not see any major insolvencies among insurers, or a large number of changes in ratings among insurers it monitors.
Fitch said that taking into account loss estimates from Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina and Ophelia, this season could cost insurers up to $70 billion, or 17.5 percent of the industry's statutory surplus, approximately two full years of statutory earnings.
Robert P. Hartwig, vice president and chief economist for the Insurance Information Institute Inc., said he believes even with the losses sustained from Rita, the effect on the insurance industry will remain regional with higher costs in homeowners and commercial property insurance, and some for auto coverage.
Increases will also be focused on reinsurance catastrophe coverage, but again, he said, the spillover will be regional.
"The effect will be on a regional basis, and not a general hard market," said Mr. Hartwig.
In his analysis, Mr. Gelb said insurers Lehman Brothers cover should be able to manage the losses.
The companies with the most exposure this hurricane season that Lehman covers, he noted, are RenaissanceRe Holdings, Everest Re Group, Arch Capital Group and XL Capital Ltd. Those with moderate exposure are Allstate Corporation, PartnerRe Ltd., ACE Limited, SAFECO Corp. and St. Paul Travelers Cos.
Among the companies with the least exposure listed are American International Group, Progressive Corp. and Chubb Corp.
According to National Underwriter Insurance Data Service, State Farm and Allstate are the top two writers of homeowners policies in Texas and Louisiana.
State Farm has 29.6 percent of the market in Texas and 34.7 percent of the market in Louisiana. Farmers Insurance Group is third in Texas with 11.7 percent of the market, while Louisiana Farm Bureau is third with 6 percent of the market in Louisiana.
On the commercial property side, St. Paul Travelers is the top writer in Texas and Louisiana with 11.8 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively. Zurich is second in Texas with 10.6 percent of the market, followed by Chubb's Combined Federal Insurance Companies at 9.3 percent.
In Louisiana, State Farm is number two with 12.9 percent of the market and Zurich is third with 10 percent.
Rita came ashore Saturday morning, striking coastal towns on the Texas and Louisiana border.
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