NU Online News Service, May 17, 2:15 p.m. EDT--Government hurricane forecasters are predicting a 70-percent chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, with up to five "major hurricanes."
The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, said it is predicting for this year's Atlantic hurricane season 12 to 15 tropical storms, and seven to nine of them turning into hurricanes. Among the projected hurricanes, three to five could become major hurricanes, NOAA said.
According to NOAA administrator, Navy Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher, "Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high."
NOAA cited warmer seas, low wind shear and surface pressures--combined with African easterly jet and weaker easterly trade winds--as main factors that could trigger an active hurricane season in 2005.
If this year's Atlantic hurricane season does indeed turn out to be above-normal, it will mark the ninth above-normal season in 11 years.
The NOAA's hurricane outlook is produced by scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division and National Hurricane Center. NOAA meteorologists use sophisticated numerical models and high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes.
The NOAA scientists' prediction is similar to the latest one offered by William Gray, the Colorado State University meteorologist and the country's leading hurricane forecaster.
In April, Mr. Gray predicted that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season would bring 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major. Both NOAA and Mr. Gray will update their predictions in August when the peak hurricane season starts.
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