The Aon study said that, "After a fairly chaotic introduction, TRIA?with a few exceptions?has largely fulfilled its short-term public policy goal of creating a readily available supply of terrorism capacity at affordable prices."

The Aon report, "Terrorism Risk Management & Risk Transfer Market Overview," concludes, "Even with substantial net insurer retentions, TRIA has clearly benefited market capacity and pricing."

It adds, "The long-term picture for the terrorism risk market remains as unclear as the risks it insures. No viable alternative funding mechanisms for this risk have emerged from the capital markets or from private market pooling arrangements."

The Aon report said that recent studies by the government's own General Accounting Office and the American Academy of Actuaries "both acknowledge this reality," adding that, "In the absence of TRIA or some alternative scheme, the market may well shrink to stand-alone terrorism capacity only, as carriers (with some few possible exceptions) are unlikely to retain risk of this volatility on a net basis."

In contrast, a Congressional Budget Office report released Jan. 6 concludes that the cost to the economy of "scaling back" federal coverage for terrorism insurance "is likely to be small."

Eliminating the program when it expires at the end of this year, it said, could result in "gains in economic efficiency." One reason would be that letting the program expire could mean reduced losses in the event of an attack "if the resulting higher premiums encouraged firms to adopt measures to reduce losses."

Regarding the hearing, the TRIA issue will be the first insurance issue the committee takes up, the lobbyists said. A spokesman for the panel would not confirm or deny the date.

Regarding House action, Joel Wood, chief federal lobbyist for the Council for Insurance Agents and Brokers, said that the insurance industry "has a comfort zone that the House Financial Services Committee "will be there to act" when called upon.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see Rep. Mike Oxley, R-Ohio, chairman of the committee, hold off on committee action in order to gauge whether action on this bill is achievable in the Senate," he said.