West Coast Tsunami Could Cost Trillions

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, Dec. 29, 1:21 p.m. EST?As the casualty count continues to grow from Asia's deadly tsunami, experts said the U.S. West Coast is vulnerable to such a catastrophe and the insurance costs could run into the trillions.[@@]

"The coast of California, Oregon, Washington, and also Alaska and Hawaii?they are all vulnerable to tsunamis," said Carolyn Bell, spokesperson for the Reston, Va.-based U.S. Geological Survey, the sole science agency for the U.S. Department of the Interior.

According to Ms. Bell, an earthquake that occurs in the Pacific could create giant tidal waves reaching the U.S. West Coastal region. "Scientifically there is a possibility. It's probably fair to say there may be around 5 percent chance in the next 30 or 40 years," she told NU.

Such an event in the U.S. could mean "trillions of dollars" in property exposure in the worst-case scenario, according to the Insurance Information Network of California in Los Angeles.

"It would have to be in the trillions of dollars because you have to look at all the potential policies you could be factoring in: earthquake insurance, flood insurance, homeowners, commercial, auto, medical, life," said the group's spokesperson Candy Miller.

"Beyond homeowners, you have to look at what the impact would be on business, tourism, the closing and interruption of business, workers' compensation, and some of the priciest real estates in the world."

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings in New York predicted that the insured losses from deadly Asian tsunamis will mostly affect the Asian primary insurance market and the worldwide reinsurance market, including markets in Singapore, London and Bermuda.

The rating agency noted U.S. primary insurers are not likely to incur material losses as the result of this event. Some U.S. primary insurers may have "modest exposure," however, on property owned by multi-national companies insured through policies issued by U.S. carriers.

Fitch also forecast that the event occurred too late to affect Jan. 1 reinsurance renewal pricing. Nonetheless, the pricing of retrocessional reinsurance?reinsurance purchased by reinsurers? could be affected since many retrocessional policies renew on March 1.

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