Modelers Charley Loss Estimates Vary
By Steve Tuckey
NU Online News Service, Aug. 16, 2 :15 p.m. EDT?One catastrophe modeler said the path of Hurricane Charley has led it to lower insured damage estimates below what it previously predicted.[@@]
The revision came from Newark, Calif.-based Risk Management Solutions, which changed its initial estimates of $10 billion to $15 billion to around $5 billion. Meanwhile Boston-based AIR Worldwide Inc. said it was sticking to its estimate of between $6 billion and $10 billion.
"The storm was actually quite compact for a hurricane of this size, a Category 4. And since the radius was small, that kept losses to a more narrow band than a storm of this size could normally be expected to cause," said Mike Gannon of AIR Worldwide.
The fast-moving nature of the storm also lessened damage in that it did not linger in any one area.
"If it had slowed down or lingered over certain areas, losses would have been higher," Mr. Gannon said.
Florida losses extended from the Fort Myers area across the state to Daytona Beach and also extended to the North Carolina Outer Banks area.
Radar and infrared imagery suggested that the storm's maximum wind radius was less than six miles at landfall, substantially smaller than what would be expected for a Category 4 hurricane.
"Wind speed observations indicate that Charley's swath of damaging winds narrowed abruptly just before landfall," said RMS meteorologist Kyle Beatty.
According to National Underwriter Insurance Data Services, State Farm's 23.4 percent share of the homeowners' market in Florida is double that of its closest competitor, Allstate, at 11.4 percent.
As of yesterday, State Farm reported 19,454 homeowners' claims and 1,552 auto claims.
Company spokesperson Fraser Engerman said that 825 catastrophe claims adjusters would be joining the company's 2,900 Florida employees, agents and agent's staff members in assisting policyholders.
Allstate said at noon today that it was too early to provide any specific claims figures, but did say the potential total losses could be material to the current results of the operations of the company.
Nationwide, the number four company in terms of the Florida homeowners' market with a five percent share, yesterday reported a total of 4,266 home, 288 auto, 34 boat and 1,060 commercial claims.
The total number of event-related calls to claims centers stood at 18,750, according to company spokesperson Kevin Craiglow.
Virtually all of the top 25 writers in the area have yet to prepare initial claims figures.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free PropertyCasualty360 Digital Reader
Your access to unlimited PropertyCasualty360 content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking insurance news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Weekly Insurance Speak podcast featuring exclusive interviews with industry leaders
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical converage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, BenefitsPRO and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.