CEOs Predict On Issues: TRIA, Mergers, Asbestos

By Susanne Sclafane

NU Online News Service, June 17, 4:12 p.m. EDT, New York?Leaders of several property-casualty insurers examined their crystal balls at an industry meeting here and issued predictions on topics such as carrier consolidation, asbestos fund legislation and civil litigation reform.[@@]

Their predictions came at the annual Standard & Poor's insurance conference.

Jay Fishman, chief executive officer of St. Paul Travelers, predicted class action reform could happen in the next two weeks.

On asbestos reform, he said that talks are going on, but that passage of a federal reform bill was unlikely.

Edmund Kelly, CEO of Liberty Mutual, also said he didn't think asbestos reform would happen.

Both men forecast that the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act will be extended.

Prognosticating on possible continued consolidation among insurers, Mr. Kelly said: "Large pools of capital will continue to dominate" the industry, and "we're no different than any other industry. We're an aggressive consolidator, and we will continue to be."

"Inevitably, large entities with large brands will dominate," he said, using the pizza industry to support his conclusion. The more information people have, the fewer decisions they want to make, he insisted, explaining why they'll order pizza from an entity owned by Pizza Hut and insurance from a name-brand insurer.

Mr. Fishman said: "There are very substantial economies of scale in our business?everything from economies of scale of talent to economies of scale of systems and technology. As you grow, you are really impressed by that. So that [consolidation] trend is real and is going to continue," with some consolidations voluntary and some not.

Robert Partridge, S&P managing director, predicted that there would not be major purchases of companies going forward because of latent liability issues. Instead, "we'll see more book sales," he said, referring to purchases of renewal rights.

Evan Greenberg, CEO of ACE, Ltd., said there will be more merger and acquisition on the horizon, but there will be a "mixed bag" of motivations and targets.

He said, "For new capital?the new Bermuda players, in particular?the theme is raw capital chasing infrastructure and local market reach."

"In personal and small commercial?the commodity and consumer-driven lines?you'll have more M&A driven by scale, which brings infrastructure and brand," said Mr. Greenberg.

But in the remainder of commercial lines, "scale is illusory. You don't have to be big to compete," he commented.

Still, "there will be an element?there always is a drive to grow. There typically is, and will always be, a certain amount of merger activity that is driven by a logic that is backed into to justify acquisitions" that are really done for growth purposes, he concluded.

Addressing questions about the individual M&A strategies at their companies, the chief financial officers of Liberty Mutual and Hannover Re went in opposite directions.

"We have proven to be a consolidator over the last several years," said Liberty Mutual's Dennis Langwell. He said he could not guess at the type or size of acquisitions that might be on the horizon for the Boston-based insurer, but "we know it's going to happen."

Mr. Langwell advised that medium-sized companies caught in the middle are going to have to consolidate and present opportunities for acquisition.

"The deadly middle is not where anyone is going to want to be," he said, referring to companies "too big to be small and too small to be big."

Dr. Elke Koenig of Hannover Re said, "We can put the Hannover Re flag anywhere we want around the world. There are no white spots on our landscape," she said, explaining that because of the company's global reach, "there is no need" to engage in merger or acquisition transactions.

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