Aon Map Addresses Shifts In Global Risk Concerns
By Mark E. Ruquet
NU Online News Service, Jan. 30, 3:23 p.m. EST, New York?Companies who need insurance for global operations now see political and economic risks as a greater concern than terrorism, according to a brokerage firm study.[@@]
The finding was made by the Trade Credit and Political Risk team of Chicago-based Aon after an evaluation of financial and investment risk throughout the world.
Their research, presented at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City Wednesday, included results of a survey that found issues of regulation and trade outrank terrorism as the top concern of the global 1000 companies.
Aon's Trade Credit and Political Risk Team discussed these issues while presenting their Political and Economic Risk map for 2004.
John Minor, national director, political risk, Aon Trade Credit, said the map rates political and economic stability as viewed by "insurers around the world."
The importance of the map, to the insurance community, he said, is underscored by the fact that over the past 20 years insurers have insured more than $7.4 trillion in exports around the world and $180 billion in direct investment and handled $180 billion in claims.
Paul Stockham, business development director, Aon Trade Credit, said that today events in other countries are often reported when they are "dramatic" and then quickly forgotten. The map, he said, is a way of giving a more considered view of the world.
"We are putting this information out there for risk managers to give them more objective information on what is going on in the world," he said.
Michael Leonard, chief economist, Aon Trade Credit, said that the uncertainties over political and economic risk are costing the world $800 billion in reduced corporate spending, investments and growth.
Mr. Leonard said there has been a substantial shift in concern over last year from terrorism to "traditional concerns" such as civil war and political upheavals.
Giving an overview of the world, and how the map reflects the uncertain economic and political climate in some countries, he said that some countries have experienced changes in their structures over the last year that could affect future investing for better or worse.
Among the nations of the world, he noted that Venezuela, Bolivia and the Dominican Republic are countries where political and economic risks have either risen or remained high. A number of Eastern European countries, he said, are on the low side of risk, showing stability and opportunities.
In the U.S., the concern for terrorism remains high, he said, though the political risks are rated low and there is no economic risk reflected in the map. However, should there be another attack in the U.S., he said, there would be more impact on the U.S. dollar, which has suffered against the Euro, than to the stock markets, which declined after 9/11.
Samuel Wilkin, country risk advisor, Aon Trade Credit, noted that one mistake businesses make in investing in foreign countries is failing to understand the dynamics of business at the local level.
Mr. Wilkin said many corporations in the developed world see little or no growth in their home territories and are looking overseas to developing countries for new markets. However, he said when companies fail to understand the dynamics of a nation's culture, politics, regulations and business (which he referred to as Kimchi), it can prove to be very costly to them.
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