"I have been through this thing twice before, and basically, the hard market is now over," said J. Robert Hunter, director of insurance for the group. "Generally, the property hard market will be all over by the middle of this year, and the liability will follow about a quarter later," Mr. Hunter told National Underwriter.

For those who feel he maybe overstating his case, Mr. Hunter argued: "If insurers say I am daydreaming, it's because they want to keep the prices going up, which means more profits for them. They have every incentive to say it."

But the fact is that there are large profits, and insurers now want to compete for market share, which signals the beginning of the end of the hard market, he argued. Loss ratios for individual lines of commercial insurance are also improving, he said.

"The hard part of the cycle is over. And insurers don't need more surplus--they've already got plenty compared to historical levels."

The CFA also added that its analysis of commercial property-casualty price increases, based on a survey undertaken by the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers, shows rates are still increasing but that they are dropping in magnitude.

Overall, price increases are half of what they were in 2001 for the liability coverage and even less for the property coverage, the group said. It added that these lines will flatten out soon, and that some reductions in premiums will occur after that.

"The combination of lower losses and continued sluggish rate increases in most commercial lines is a double whammy the hard market can't take," Mr. Hunter said. He added that most businesses should see their insurance costs level off and then start to drop in the next few months.

In the past, hard markets have run roughly two years before rates plateau and soften, Mr. Hunter said. And now, "two years have passed since this hard market began in the spring of 2001."

Mr. Hunter added that this classic turn after two years of hard market is good news for buyers of commercial insurance. "While there may be some increases yet ahead for some specific commercial insurance buyers, the end of the hard market is clearly at hand for most business consumers," he said.