Weather Service Improves Hurricane Forecasts
By Michael Ha
NU Online News Service, March 19, 10:41 a.m. EST?The National Weather Service said it will start issuing longer-range hurricane forecasts this year, expanding the prediction from three to five-days.
This change would be the first forecast extension for the National Weather Service, which has had the responsibility of issuing timely and accurate hurricane forecasts, watches and warnings since 1964.
Frank Lepore, spokesperson for the National Hurricane Center at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the five-day projections on the movement and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the United States would begin June 1.
"This goes back to a 1999 request by the U.S. Navy for five-day forecasts, and the National Weather Service ran this forecast in the background, if you will, during the 2001 and 2002 hurricane seasons," Mr. Lepore said.
Data from the 2001 and 2002 seasons indicate the five-day track forecast will be as accurate as the three-day forecast was 15 years ago, he noted.
"For the general public, which would be more germane to the insurance industry, the five-day forecasts would serve as a heads-up, an additional two days of planning and preparing. It would be an increased awareness for the general public," Mr. Lepore said.
He added that those two extra days could be especially helpful to those who don't have much experience preparing for storms and hurricanes--new residents who recently moved to Florida or other southern states, for example.
Extra days to prepare for impending hurricanes would also benefit insurers, who lose hundreds of millions of dollars every year from hurricane-covered losses in the United States.
In its recent annual study of natural-catastrophe trends, the Munich, Germany-based reinsurer Munich Re said significant natural-catastrophe events in the United States last year included tornadoes in April, which caused $1.6 billion in overall insured losses, and storms in November, which resulted in $460 million losses.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free PropertyCasualty360 Digital Reader
Your access to unlimited PropertyCasualty360 content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking insurance news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Weekly Insurance Speak podcast featuring exclusive interviews with industry leaders
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical converage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, BenefitsPRO and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.