Before I write anything else, let me say that if I really could predict what technologies were going to be hot and what werent, Id be spending this time on E-Trade (from the chateau) not writing the back page of a magazine.
People are always trying to predict the hot new technology, either to get on the bandwagon early, to know what stocks to buy, or to get jobs as columnists and consultants. Books have been written about how to predict whats going to be the Next Big Thing.
Heres my theory: To be successful commercially, a technology must first go through a Geek Acceptance Stage. If the geeks like it, its only a matter of time before its at Wal-Mart. Thats because geeks get hold of an idea, play around with it for a while, and eventually build enough of a base of support for itnot to mention word of mouththat it makes its way into the mainstream.
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