I dont like experts. I shouldnt say that: I just dont trust them. My friends know what I mean when I say, Its that expert thing again. It means that someone who was supposed to be an expert in something was completely wrong.

My experience is that many experts can tell a good talea convincing one and one they honestly believeand still be way off base. From tech support people to plumbers to economists, Ive seen that experts can offer detailed, convincing arguments that seem clearly to be trueand be completely wrong.

(I remember the experts explanation of why 9,600 bps was the absolute highest possible modem speed. And then again when it was 14,400 bps. And 28,800. Each time, the argument was backed with clear reasoning regarding copper wire, switching systems, and so on.)

Experts are bad enough when it comes to facts. When it comes to opinions about your business, they can be downright dangerous if you follow them blindly.

If youre going to look to others to learn the right thingand theres nothing wrong with turning to a consultant for helpyou should never listen to only one. Making a decision should not be based on one experts opinion, or even several. It should be based on those, plus your own, plus the broader opinion of the market.

One person telling you to buy brand A may have ulterior motives, incorrect information, or different priorities. But a consensus doesnt suffer from those. When the trend is toward a particular product, brand, or scheme, theres a reason for thata reason experts might miss.

Write this down: Good decisions are based on a trend or consensus of opinion. (Great decisions are based on bucking that trend to do the impossibleand a little luck. Thats another story.)

Does that make it a popularity contest? Not entirely. But popularity is not something to be dismissed out of hand, Baywatch or no Baywatch. Other operating systems may well be better than Windows at a host of things, but Windowss popularity increases the available software, and that increases Windowss usefulness. So yes, some things are better because theyre popular.

So, when you turn to a consultant (and be sure to read Decisions, Decisions, on page 16), keep all this in mind. When that consultant says you should do something a certain waythat its been proven that such-and-such is true or right or besttake it with a grain of salt. The most you should get from what an expert tells you is perspective: a different way of looking at a problem or a situation, or a starting point for your own investigation.

I have a sign on my wall called Rules that I use to remind myself of things Ive learned. Rule 8 is Believe in yourself and your decisions. The fact that youre reading this magazine means youre a smart person. Dont forget that.

Andrew Kantor Editor-in-Chief

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