Premiums Range Wildly, RMs Told
By Caroline McDonald
NU Online News Service, April 3, 9:19 a.m. EST? An industry analyst has a warning for risk managers-- they can face a startling range of prices when they seek insurance.
Alice Cornish, analyst for Prudential Financial in Boston gave that caution in outlining the current market situation in an interview with National Underwriter and a newsletter report.
What risk managers can expect to pay now is "all over the board," she said. As far as property increases, Ms. Cornish said their recent buyers' survey found that property increases, for example "can be 20 percent or they can be 200 percent."
To keep rates low, "What the brokers have said is to be prepared with the information that the insurers need," she advised.
In a soft market "the broker asks for 10 percent less and the underwriter says fine and everyone goes to lunch. Now the insurance companies are asking for more information," said Ms. Cornish.
This information includes any changes in loss exposures, loss history, and they need "to answer a lot more questions."
Internally, she said, risk managers need to "tell their CFO that the world has changed. Anybody should be able to see that."
She added that, "I've read comments that some of the higher-ups are surprised [about rising rates], and that's impossible for me to believe. Everybody knows they've been getting a good deal for 10 years."
Ms. Cornish noted that insurance companies need to return to profitability and the only way they can do so is by raising prices.
Insurers, she said, previously had a much higher interest rate environment for their investments.
"They had the benefit of a much higher interest rate environment back in the last [market] cycle," she said. "It's stunning. Back in 1984 the 10-year Treasury note was way over 10 percent?under 14 percent. So you're looking at a 10-year Treasury now that's under six. There's a huge difference in what your reinvestment rates are."
If insurance company profits are made up of two pieces and the investment yield is "clearly not going to help, the only way insurers will get back to profitability again is by raising rates," she explained. "As you can see, they have a pretty big hill to climb from the standpoint of getting their underwriting results in check."
To make matters more difficult, she explained, the yield on their portfolio "is considerably less than in the last hard market. They have a much big underwriting loss to overcome and there an issue with the portfolio yield being so low."
The "Cycle Survey" electronic newsletter, written by Ms. Cornish and associate Jay Gelb, reported that last year's industry underwriting losses could be the largest ever at "about $52 billion," up from "a $37 billion loss for the first nine months."
The newsletter continues that investment income growth "should be subdued this year at about 2 percent to $37 billion." The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, it noted, is currently 5.4 percent, up from 5.03 percent at year-end.
The benefit of higher interest rates, however, "should be mostly offset by two factors?negative cash flow from paying the Sept. 11 terrorist attack losses, and maturing bonds being reinvested at a rate below the portfolio yield."
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