Insurer Stocks Outperform General Mkt.

NU Stock Analyst

The Christmas season, the season to be jolly, produced an investor-pleasing “Santa Claus rally” in insurance stocks. Even better, it was a year-end surge that enabled insurance issues to outperform the general market in December.

The 117 stocks we follow advanced almost 5 percent. That beats the general market, as the Dow Jones moved up only 1.73 percent and the S&P 500 edged ahead 0.76 percent, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.03 percent.

There were 84 advances and 33 declines, which works out to a win/lose ratio of 2.5/1.0. There were 18 double-digit advances. All eight industry sectors moved up.

The reinsurers were statistically the best performers after logging a 6.79 percent gain. Vesta Insurance Group (Novembers big loser after falling 54.08 percent), came roaring back to register a 35.75 percent gain. It appears investors overacted to a bad-news third-quarter earnings announcement, then reassessed and changed their minds.

Odyssey Re surged 14.94 percent to $17.70, Trenwick Group gained 13.76 percent to $10.17, and IPC Holdings was better by 13.41 percent at $29.60. There are a number of takeover rumors, all of which sound reasonable. I recall a fund manager telling me, “Buy them all, and then just be patient!”

Property and casualty stocks were solid, though not exciting performers. As a group they advanced 4.88 percent, with 28 winners and 14 losers.

Workers' compensation writers Fremont General and Argonaut Group were up 32.30 percent and 13.10 percent, respectively. There were similar surges in malpractice specialists, as SCPIE Holdings soared 45.89 percent, and ProAssurance Corp. tacked on an 18.70 percent gain. Investors are betting on substantial rate increases.

Top workers' comp analysts believe that improvements in results will be slow in coming, but remain cautiously optimistic. Meanwhile, the departure of St. Paul Companies from the medical malpractice field could provide opportunities for smaller competitors.

The life and health contingent stood out with a 6.10 percent advance. There were 24 winners and only four losers, which generated a not often seen win/lose ratio of 6/1.

Life and health issues produced by the recently demutualized life company stocks have acted like a subgroup within the sector and have been top performers.

The giant Prudential came to market as Prudential Financial Services, and was immediately listed on the New York Stock Exchange (symbol: PRU). The offering price of the stock was $27.50. PRU opened at a premium and has moved up to the $33.00 area. Recognizing the company's numerous insurance and financial services activities, the stock is listed as a multiline.

Thomas K. Meakin is affiliated with LIM Systems International in Voorhees, N.J. Stock results are supplied by The Firemark Group in Morristown, N.J.


Reproduced from National Underwriter Property & Casualty/Risk & Benefits Management Edition, January 21, 2002. Copyright 2002 by The National Underwriter Company in the serial publication. All rights reserved.Copyright in this article as an independent work may be held by the author.


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