A Few Winners Emerge In Quiet July
NU Stock Analyst
In the wake of a banner May and a good June, July was set up to be a down month in insurance stocks, and that's exactly what it was. Further, July 2001 was a quiet off month that scarcely left an imprint on the industry's record book.
Only 45 of the 115 stocks priced for this column made it to the plus column. There were 69 losers and one issue that was unchanged for the month. That works out to a bearish win/lose ratio of roughly 2/3.
Over all, the 115 stocks we followed were down 1.78 percent, which was slightly worse than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500, but a lot better than the NASDAQ Composite for the month of July. Six of the eight industry groups ended in the minus column.
Only the brokers decisively bucked the trend and moved up with an 11.41 percent gain. Four of the five broker stocks sported plus signs for the month. Behind the double-digit advance was a 35.87 percent surge in Clark/Barde Holdings, with a 15.15 percent assist from Brown & Brown. Marsh & McLennan essentially stayed even for the month as it eased to 100.40 from 101.00.
The specialists edged up a minimal 0.36 percent to qualify, just barely, as the second “up” group.
The largest sector, the 45 property-casualty insurers, almost ended ahead for the month, but didnt quite make it. While 27 p-c stocks moved down in July, the group was still off only 0.76 percent.
However, the stocks of a number of companies where rate increases were having a salutary effect responded with double-digit advances.
Erie Indemnity jumped to 36.00 from 29.75 to record a 21 percent gain. Baldwin & Lyons, the truck insurer, surged to 25.14 from 21.00 for a 19.70 percent advance.
California auto specialist Mercury General pleased Wall Street analysts by beating their estimates. Institutional buyers pushed MCY up 12.38 percent to 39.30. Mercury Chairman George Joseph gave a positive assessment of the companys prospects in the conference call that followed the release of second quarter results.
For a change, I cant find any takeovers to talk about. But there was an interesting major deal. Lincoln National announced it was selling its wholly owned Lincoln Re to Swiss Re. Lincoln National executives said they expect to receive net after-tax proceeds of $1.9 billion from the sale. Lincoln National said it plans to use the proceeds from the sale for potential acquisitions and for share repurchases.
News reports indicate that leading meteorologists forecast a total of eight hurricanes this hurricane season. Should they turn out to be anywhere near correct, we are in for an active and worrisome time over the next six weeks.
Thomas K. Meakin is affiliated with LIM Systems International in Voorhees, N.J. Stock results are supplied by The Firemark Group in Morristown, N.J.
Reproduced from National Underwriter Property & Casualty/Risk & Benefits Management Edition, September 3, 2001. Copyright 2001 by The National Underwriter Company in the serial publication. All rights reserved.Copyright in this article as an independent work may be held by the author.
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