As the third anniversary of Hurricane Sandy approached, Mexico braced for the onslaught of Hurricane Patricia, predicted to cause widespread damage as it reached Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson wind intensity scale. Heeding the warnings from the U.S. National Weather Service and similar government entities in Mexico, tourists evacuated and residents prepared for the storm.
Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses to onshore properties in Mexico from Hurricane Patricia will not exceed $200 million (MXN 3.3 billion). Six hours before Hurricane Patricia made landfall in the Mexican state of Jalisco, it was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in their domain, which covers the Atlantic and East Pacific ocean basins. Fortunately, hurricanes cannot sustain such extreme intensity for long, AIR explained, and by the time Patricia reached the coast—about 55 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo—maximum sustained winds had fallen from 200 mph to 165 mph. (A 185 mph sustained wind speed was recorded by a weather station in Cuixmala, but the NHC has warned that the observation has not been confirmed.) Still a Category 5 storm at landfall, however, Hurricane Patricia brought powerful winds, torrential rains, and a damaging storm surge to a relatively sparsely populated stretch of the Jalisco coastline.
According to the NHC, Patricia made landfall at around 6:15 p.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 23, near the town of Cuixmala in Jalisco state in southwestern Mexico, between the resort city of Puerto Vallarta and the major port city of Manzanillo. Although the hurricane looked impressive in satellite imagery prior to landfall, AIR Worldwide said, the wind field was relatively small. Category 5 wind speeds extended just 15 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane-force winds extended outward just 35 miles from the eye.
Patricia’s forward speed at landfall was 20 mph, and this fast movement helped to limit rainfall accumulation. As the storm moved inland, it began to weaken as it interacted with Mexico’s mountainous terrain, although it was still a Category 3 hurricane five hours after landfall, with sustained winds of 120 mph. The NHC officially downgraded Patricia to tropical storm status on Saturday morning and then to a tropical low a few hours later.
(Photo: Thinkstock/skynavin)
Hurricane Patricia sets records
In addition to its record-breaking wind speeds, Hurricane Patricia’s minimum central pressure, at 879 millibars (mb), was the lowest recorded in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, and it also holds the record for the fastest intensifying hurricane, dropping 100 mb in just 24 hours.
Fortunately, said AIR, Hurricane Patricia did not make a direct hit on the coastal exposure concentrations of Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo, which experienced much weaker winds and storm surge than were experienced in the vicinity of landfall. The storm also missed the major city of Guadalajara as it tracked inland. No doubt this helped to hold down the amount of losses.
According to AIR, indications are that damage has not been as severe as had been feared, although a more complete picture will emerge as communications are reestablished, and surveys are undertaken in mountainous inland locations. In the state of Jalisco, in the area nearest to landfall, roof coverings were peeled off by high winds and damage to non-structural elements such as awnings and signage was common. Dozens of small homes were flattened in the fishing village of Chamela.
Severe damage limited
Some structural damage to homes and businesses occurred as a result of fallen trees; however, severe damage has been limited, AIR said. Many roads have been made impassible by debris or landslides, and hundreds of homes have been flooded, primarily in some high elevation locales. Several injuries have been reported, but thus far no fatalities. Mexican authorities had declared emergencies in the three coastal states of Jalisco, Nayarit, and Colima prior to landfall. Resorts in Puerto Vallarta had been evacuated and schools were closed.
In addition to its small radius of maximum winds, the impact of the storm was tempered by the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains, which shielded the more densely populated coastal exposures from widespread destruction that could have otherwise resulted from a strong Category 5 hurricane. Furthermore, Patricia’s storm surge was limited because of its small size, the short amount of time it spent as an intense hurricane prior to landfall, and unfavorable coastal bathymetry. Emergency preparedness measures and evacuations ahead of the storm also reduced the impact of the hurricane.
Unfortunately for Texas, southwestern Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf coast, remnants of Patricia are bringing heavy rainfall, exacerbating flooding that has been occurring over the last several days.
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Rosalie Donlon
Rosalie Donlon is the editor in chief of ALM's insurance and tax publications, including NU Property & Casualty magazine and NU PropertyCasualty360.com. You can contact her at [email protected].
