A new report for aviation insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty SE (AGCS) finds that while the skies are safer, there are a number of emerging risks that could impact carriers and insurers.
Until this year's unprecedented aviation disasters, the industry's safety record had improved to fewer than two passenger deaths for every 100 million passengers. Over the last 60 years, the industry has seen a steady decline in accidents as technology and training have improved. By today's estimates, there is a greater chance of dying while riding a bicycle (1 in 340,000) than dying aboard an airplane in the U.S. (1 in 29 million). Even the odds of being killed by lightning are higher – 1 in 10.5 million.
The study says that much of the improvement in airline accident rates is due to advances in the reliability of jet engines, with manufacturers almost eliminating the chance of engine failure. The greatest risk still comes from the human factors that can affect safety. These include: pilot fatigue, pilot training, crew resource management and other factors. Approximately 70% of commercial fatal accidents are still due in large part to human error, despite many technological developments. Crew fatigue contributes to about 15%-20% of the accidents, and a number of initiatives will continue to improve safety efforts.
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