Advances in medical research should also concern insurers, the briefing states. It points to studies indicating that the risk of asbestos-induced lung diseases can be heightened not only by long-term occupational exposures, but also by short but intense non-occupational exposures, such as from a home renovation.

Furthermore, the briefing cites studies, including one published in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, that find a “malignant synergy” between asbestos exposure, asbestosis and smoking.

As such, Assured says the typical plaintiff in this third wave may be longtime smokers with non-occupational exposure to asbestos. Assured says, “We believe the third wave will be dominated by lung-cancer claims which are ostensibly lower quality than those of mesothelioma because the cancer was predominantly caused by smoking rather than asbestos.”

The firm adds, “Nevertheless, large numbers of even lower-quality claims could raise pressure on defendants anxious to settle and minimize nuisance suits.”

Assured also says the increasing use of high-resolution CT scans, rather than “cloudier X-rays,” may increase the diagnosis of asbestosis, and social-media outlets make prospecting for claimants by lawyers easier.

Worse for insurers, Assured believes current models used by consulting firms “and most likely insurance companies” rely on assumptions crafted in the mid-1980s and recalibrated once in the later 1990s, and do not account for the new data on medical research and life expectancy. The models, says Assured, generally only account for occupational exposures, for example.

Speaking to the need to once again recalibrate models, Assured says, “The result, we expect, would be higher forecasted claims and an explanation for the series of annual 'surprises' that many insurers relay each time they fund rising asbestos payments with yet another 'one-time' annual reserve charge.”