The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts this week, and forecasters are calling for a normal number of storms—but some warn that the odds are in favor of a U.S. landfall.

Catastrophe-modeler RMS released its pre-season commentary, saying conditions remain right for the total number of tropical storms “to be near the long-term average of 10.7 tropical storms.”

RMS notes that while some existing conditions could drive higher Atlantic basin-activity, other factors, such as higher wind shear over the Atlantic, have increased “the likelihood of a near-normal season in 2012.”

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