As always, June 1 is the beginning of hurricane season. The season runs until the end of November and storms rarely start at the beginning of the season. But storms do their own thing so the start of the season indicates that it's time to consider flood insurance, mitigation efforts, and other steps to make the season as safe as possible.
Multiple agencies issue predictions every year based on weather patterns such as El Nino or La Nina and trending Atlantic Ocean temperatures. In general, when El Nino is stronger, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter. However, when the temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are warmer hurricanes tend to be stronger and able to counteract the effects of El Nino. This year both weather effects are in play, making predictions difficult. They could cancel each other out and result in a mild year, or one could override the other. The below chart provides this year's predictions.
On July 6 Colorado State updated it's prediction, increasing the number of named storms predicted from 14 to 18, the number of hurricanes from 7 to 9, and the number of major storms from 3 to 4.
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Christine G. Barlow, CPCU, is Executive Editor of FC&S Expert Coverage Interpretation, a division of National Underwriter Company and ALM. Christine has over thirty years’ experience in the insurance industry, beginning as a claims adjuster then working as an underwriter and underwriting supervisor handling personal lines. Christine regularly presents and moderates webinars on a variety of topics and is an experienced presenter.