Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA") monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns have found that conditions now are more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Niño has ended.
Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway, the NOAA explained in a statement.
"NOAA will continue to deliver the information that the public depends on before, during and after any storms throughout the hurricane season," said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. "Armed with our next-generation satellites, sophisticated weather models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and the expertise of our forecasters, we are prepared to keep communities informed to help save lives and livelihoods."
Seasonal forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45 percent (up from 30 percent from the outlook issued in May). The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35 percent, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20 percent.
The number of predicted storms is also greater with the NOAA now expecting 10 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 m.p.h. or greater), of which five to nine will become hurricanes (winds of 74 m.p.h. or greater), including two to four major hurricanes (winds of 111 m.p.h. or greater). This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends November 30.
The NOAA also announced that the current El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has ended and neutral conditions have returned.
"El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it's gone, we could see a busier season ahead," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year."
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The NOAA's hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
The updated outlook "is a reminder to be prepared," said Pete Gaynor, acting administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency ("FEMA"). "We urge everyone to learn more about hurricane hazards and prepare now, ahead of time, so that if state and local authorities announce evacuations in advance of a storm, you and your family will have planned where to go and what to do to stay safe."
This article was first published in May 2020.
Victoria Spears
Victoria Prussen Spears is senior vice president of Meyerowitz Communications Inc., a law firm marketing communications consulting company. A graduate of Sarah Lawrence College and Brooklyn Law School, Ms. Spears was an attorney at a leading New York City law firm before joining Meyerowitz Communications. She may be contacted at [email protected].