3-25-2019

Most people start to think of potential flooding around hurricane season, which runs from June to November. Hurricanes tend to form later in the year, generally in late summer or early fall. What is generally overlooked is the devastation and flooding that occurs in the spring. The combination of melting snow and rain can wreak havoc on buildings near, or even not terribly near, rivers and streams.

Currently, several states in the Midwest are experiencing such flooding. Nebraska, Wisconsin, Mississippi and South Dakota have all declared states of emergency, and Iowa has issued a disaster proclamation. Homeowners, farmers, the National Weather Service Offices and even the Offutt Air Force Base have all experienced flooding in the past few weeks. One-third of the air force base was underwater as of March 17. This flood was unexpectedly a historically devastating flood, due to a combination of circumstances. Early on in the season, the ground became saturated with water from rains in the fall; that groundwater froze as winter hit and brought with it severe freezing temperatures, and snow accumulation. Recent rainfall melted the snow; however, the ground was still frozen and unable to absorb the extra moisture. The water then had to run off, causing streams and rivers to overflow, which in turn caused homes, farms, and businesses to flood. Over the next few weeks and into the month of April, warming temperatures will cause more snow to melt, raising water levels in already flooded areas even more, and sending water into areas farther downstream.

Flooding can and has caused significant damage to roads and bridges, stranded people in their homes, or forced them to travel long distances to avoid the damaged roads or to escape the flooding. Some evacuees even have to travel by boat part of the way to escape the severe flooding. Farmers are cut off from access to their livestock and plantings are delayed until the land dries out. More flooding is expected in different areas across the state, and estimations of damages are already over $1 billion.

The government and many state insurance departments work hard to encourage homeowners to purchase flood insurance, explain how flood coverage works and explain that flooding is not covered by homeowners policies. Unfortunately, it is an uphill battle. Many homeowners in areas that are currently being flooded were not aware of their actual risk of flooding.

Some cities have been working to prepare for and mitigate the damages that future flooding could cause. Some municipalities have restored wetlands areas to allow for river swells, others have improved flood response so communities downstream are not impacted; others have stopped dumping snow into rivers, and instead are putting it outside the watershed, while others are attempting to move residents out of floodplains. The fewer people living in floodplains the better, and although relocating people is expensive, the continual rebuilding of properties that flood is a fool's errand.

As hurricanes are, flood insurance (or the lack thereof) is an issue. People who have lived in areas for generations in homes that never flooded have are experiencing flooding. Many do not have flood insurance and fall victim to thinking that it since it has not happened yet it will not happen to them. Right now, because the floods are current events and were so unexpected, flood insurance is not being discussed.

However, flooding does not only flow from rivers, streams and storm surges. Severe wildfires often lead to subsequent flooding. When a wildfire burns off vegetation and chars the ground, there are no plants to absorb the rainfall and the ground becomes too hard and compact to absorb water. After a wildfire, it can take up to five years for the ground to be restored to normal. During those five years, the risk of flooding and mudflow is significantly increased. Debris, ash, water and mud, can all flow downhill causing damage along the way.

For years, professionals have been discussing the fact that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) needs to be updated. Every time the program comes up for renewal before federal lawmakers, revision of the program is discussed but changes cannot be agreed upon. Between 2008 and 2012, the program was extended seventeen times with four lapses. Between September 2017 and November 2018, it was extended without changes seven times. A large problem is that NFIP is not based on actuarially sound rates, leaving it sorely underfunded. Attempts to raise rates, as was put forth in 2012, have been met with extreme pushback from the public. Federal lawmakers backed off of those 2012 rate changes in 2014 after significant public outcry.

Currently, NFIP is working on a new risk rating system, called Risk Rating 2.0, which establishes rates by incorporating multiple variables such as different types of flood, distance from the coast or another water source, areas of heavy rainfall from storms, and costs to rebuild a home among others. Leading cat models were involved in building the new rates. It is hoped that factoring in the cost to rebuild a home will help owners of lower-value homes obtain rates that are more equitable. Industry best practices and technology will be used which will be beneficial. NFIP has long been criticized for having outdated flood maps that do not necessarily reflect actual risk of flooding. With rates based on several variables, it is hoped this will make premiums more appropriate for the level of risk and eventually help homeowners understand their true risk of flood.

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