The vulnerability of the overstretched global food system to sudden shocks, and the wide repercussions for communities, businesses and governments is highlighted in a report published by Lloyd's, the specialist insurance and reinsurance market.
The scenario, produced in conjunction with U.K. and U.S. academics, shows the far-reaching economic and humanitarian consequences that disruptions such as weather catastrophes or plant pandemics – many of which, Lloyd's said, are exacerbated by climate change – could have on the global economy.
The study shows that the impact of El Niño, the spread of a windblown wheat rust in Russia, and warmer temperatures in South America could lead to wheat, maize, soybean, and rice prices quadrupling. It also suggests that European stock markets could lose 10 percent of their value and the U.S. stock market fall by five percent. In addition, this series of events has the potential to trigger food riots in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America, leading to wider political instability.
Tom Bolt, the director of performance management at Lloyd's, said, “Traditionally insurers look only at the financial and physical impact of catastrophes. But in today's interconnected world, these events can have complex and far-reaching economic and humanitarian implications.
“The insurance industry has a key role to play in improving the resilience of communities, businesses, and governments. Our role is not only to ensure that our ability to pay claims helps them to recover quickly from these events, but to ensure they have a greater awareness of the complex risks they face in a globalized world.
“One billion people go hungry every year, and this figure could treble by 2050. We need to close the gap between production and supply to improve food security, protect supply chains, and feed the world's population. The global food system is under chronic pressure to meet an ever-rising demand, and acute disruptions could lead to a wide range of problems which businesses and societies need to protect against. The effects of these kinds of environmental catastrophes could generate major economic and political impacts, and create a wide range of insurance claims.”
Among the report's findings:
- A combination of just three catastrophic weather events could lead to a 10 percent drop in global maize production, an 11 percent fall in soybean production, a seven percent fall in wheat production, and a seven percent fall in rice production.
- Wheat, maize, and soybean prices could increase to quadruple the average levels experienced during the 20 years prior to the global food price shock of 2007/8. Rice prices could increase by 500 percent.
- The scenario indicates this series of events has the potential to lead to food riots breaking out in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America, leading to wider political instability and having knock-on effects for a wide range of businesses.
- While agriculture commodity stocks might benefit, the overall economic impact of high food prices, combined with rising political instability, could severely impact financial markets. The scenario indicates that the main European stock markets might lose 10 percent of their value and U.S. stock markets five percent.
The report said that the implications for insurers include:
- A systemic shock to global food supply could trigger significant claims across multiple classes of insurance, including (but not limited to) terrorism and political violence, political risk, business interruption, marine and aviation, agriculture, product liability and recall, and environmental liability.
- These losses could be compounded by the potential for food system shock to generate losses that span multiple years. The ability of insurers to pay claims quickly would be an important factor in post-shock recovery.
- More broadly, the insurance industry also would be affected by impacts on investment income and the global regulatory and business environment.
- The insurance industry is in a position to make an important contribution to improving the resilience and sustainability of the global food system by encouraging businesses to think about their exposure to risks throughout the food supply chain and by providing innovative risk transfer products to enhance global resilience to systemic food system shocks.
- Insurers also need to work with researchers to develop models capable of capturing not only the physical effects of extreme events but also their various economic and social impacts. This is the next step needed to develop insurers' understanding of complex risks.
Learn more: www.lloyds.com/foodsystemshock.
Victoria Spears
Victoria Prussen Spears is senior vice president of Meyerowitz Communications Inc., a law firm marketing communications consulting company. A graduate of Sarah Lawrence College and Brooklyn Law School, Ms. Spears was an attorney at a leading New York City law firm before joining Meyerowitz Communications. She may be contacted at [email protected].