Incidence of Potential Pandemic Viruses
December 15, 2014
People are annually recommended to get flu shots to protect them from seasonal strains of the flu. While many people consider the flu harmless, in reality it causes thousands of deaths annually. Over the past several years there have been various illnesses raising alarm and the fear of possible pandemics. This chart displays recent and historical statistics for some of these viruses. Some childhood diseases are listed as well. With a current movement against vaccinations, some diseases that were virtually eradicated are making a comeback. While there were no deaths for measles or mumps, these diseases can leave the patient with serious side effects, so they are listed as well.
Virus | Worldwide Infections | Deaths | U.S. Infections | US Deaths | Mortality Rate | Dates | Notes |
Spanish Flu (H1N1) | ~500 Million | ~50 Million | ~25 Million | 675,000 | >2.5% | 1918-1919 | Mortality rates were highest among adults 20 to 50 years old. Adjusting for population, a comparable toll today would be 175 to 350 million. |
Asian Flu (H2N2) | ~300 Million | ~2 Million | ~15 Million | 70,000 | <1.0% | 1957-1958 | Because this strain has not circulated in humans since 1968, no one under 30 years old has immunity to this strain. |
Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) | ~200 Million | ~1 Million | ~30 Million | 34,000 | <0.5% | 1968-1969 | H3N2 viruses still circulate today. |
Bird Flu (H5N1) | 610 | 328 | 0 | 0 | 54% | 1997-2012 | New cases are still being identified; however, no pandemic strain has been discovered. |
Swine Flu (H1N1) | ~1.7 Billion | ~360,000 | 60.8 Million | 12,469 | <.1% | 2009-2010 | These global estimates are more than 15 times higher than the number of laboratory-confirmed deaths reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). |
Seasonal Flu | 340 Million – 1 Billion | 250,000-500,000 | 16-63 Million | 36,000 | <.1% | Yearly |
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SARS | 8,098 | 774 | 8 | 0 | 9.60% | 2002-2003 | Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. |
Ebola (2014) | 13,540 | 4,941 | 3 | 1 | 50-90% | 2014 | The Ebola virus was initially discovered in 1976. These figures represent the 2014 outbreak as of Oct. 29, 2014. |
HIV/AIDS | 2.5 Million | 1.7 Million | 81,000 | 16,000 | HIV- 10 years without treatment. AIDS- up to 2 years without treatment. Anywhere from 10-40 years with treatment before secondary diagnosis. | Yearly estimates since 2007 | The overall growth of the epidemic has stabilized in recent years. Nearly 30 million people have died from AIDS-related causes; nearly 700,000 in the United States. |
ME Respiratory Syndrome | 883 | 319 | 2 | 0 | ~36% | 2014 | Only 32 cases have been reported with onset dates between July and October 17, 2014, a marked decrease compared with March to June 2014 (>600 cases) |
Mumps | 514,983 | ~50 | 469 | 0 | <.0001% | 2013 | Over half of the total worldwide cases were in China. |
Measles | 194,139 | 122,000 | 198 | 0 | 50-80% | 2013 | Approximately 4 times the yearly average number of cases has been diagnosed so far in 2014 in the United States. |
Tuberculosis | 9 Million | 1.5 Million | 9,582 | 288 | 3-20% | 2013 | TB is the most common presenting illness among people living with HIV, including among those taking antiretroviral treatment and it is the major cause of HIV-related death. Sub-Saharan Africa bears the brunt of the dual epidemic, accounting for approximately 78% of the estimated burden in 2013. |
Pertussis | 16 Million | 195,000 | 28,639 | 20 | <1% | 2013 | In 2012, 48,277 cases of pertussis (whooping cough) were reported in the U.S., but many more go undiagnosed and unreported. This is the most number of cases reported in the U.S. since 1955 when 62,786 cases were reported. |
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