Incidence of Potential Pandemic Viruses

 December 15, 2014

People are annually recommended to get flu shots to protect them from seasonal strains of the flu. While many people consider the flu harmless, in reality it causes thousands of deaths annually. Over the past several years there have been various illnesses raising alarm and the fear of possible pandemics. This chart displays recent and historical statistics for some of these viruses. Some childhood diseases are listed as well. With a current movement against vaccinations, some diseases that were virtually eradicated are making a comeback. While there were no deaths for measles or mumps, these diseases can leave the patient with serious side effects, so they are listed as well.

  

Virus

Worldwide Infections

Deaths

U.S. Infections

US Deaths

Mortality Rate

Dates

Notes

Spanish Flu (H1N1)

~500 Million

~50 Million

~25 Million

675,000

>2.5%

1918-1919

Mortality rates were highest among adults 20 to 50 years old. Adjusting for population, a comparable toll today would be 175 to 350 million.

Asian Flu (H2N2)

~300 Million

~2 Million

~15 Million

70,000

<1.0%

1957-1958

Because this strain has not circulated in humans since 1968, no one under 30 years old has immunity to this strain.

Hong Kong Flu (H3N2)

~200 Million

~1 Million

~30 Million

34,000

<0.5%

1968-1969

H3N2 viruses still circulate today.

Bird Flu (H5N1)

610

328

0

0

54%

1997-2012

New cases are still being identified; however, no pandemic strain has been discovered.

Swine Flu (H1N1)

~1.7 Billion

~360,000

60.8 Million

12,469

<.1%

2009-2010

These global estimates are more than 15 times higher than the number of laboratory-confirmed deaths reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Seasonal Flu

340 Million – 1 Billion

250,000-500,000

16-63 Million

36,000

<.1%

Yearly

 

SARS

8,098

774

8

0

9.60%

2002-2003

Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world.

Ebola (2014)

13,540

4,941

3

1

50-90%

2014

The Ebola virus was initially discovered in 1976. These figures represent the 2014 outbreak as of Oct. 29, 2014.

HIV/AIDS

2.5 Million

1.7 Million

81,000

16,000

HIV- 10 years without treatment. AIDS- up to 2 years without treatment. Anywhere from 10-40 years with treatment before secondary diagnosis.

Yearly estimates since 2007

The overall growth of the epidemic has stabilized in recent years. Nearly 30 million people have died from AIDS-related causes; nearly 700,000 in the United States.

ME Respiratory Syndrome

883

319

2

0

~36%

2014

Only 32 cases have been reported with onset dates between July and October 17, 2014, a marked decrease compared with March to June 2014 (>600 cases)

Mumps

514,983

~50

469

0

<.0001%

2013

Over half of the total worldwide cases were in China.

Measles

194,139

122,000

198

0

50-80%

2013

Approximately 4 times the yearly average number of cases has been diagnosed so far in 2014 in the United States.

Tuberculosis

9 Million

1.5 Million

9,582

288

3-20%

2013

TB is the most common presenting illness among people living with HIV, including among those taking antiretroviral treatment and it is the major cause of HIV-related death. Sub-Saharan Africa bears the brunt of the dual epidemic, accounting for approximately 78% of the estimated burden in 2013.

Pertussis

16 Million

195,000

28,639

20

<1%

2013

In 2012, 48,277 cases of pertussis (whooping cough) were reported in the U.S., but many more go undiagnosed and unreported. This is the most number of cases reported in the U.S. since 1955 when 62,786 cases were reported.

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